Russia on the Brink of Fragmentation: The Illusion of Stability and the Harsh Reality

TheKremlin leadership has long operated under the belief in its unassailable powerstructure. However, power, by its nature, begins to deteriorate when it isn’tconstantly replenished with resources and public support. Modern Russia isincreasingly resembling not a centralized state but rather a patchwork ofregional enclaves linked to Moscow only by formal declarations of loyalty.

EconomicErosion: From the Center to the Regions

Theeconomic model that has underpinned the Russian Federation for decades isshowing signs of strain. The center in Moscow, which once effortlesslyredistributed resource revenues and subsidized the regions, now finds itselfwith almost nothing left to allocate. This scarcity is pushing regional elitesto seek alternative economic ties – and it isn’t hard to find options, asneighboring countries are rapidly forging new alliances.

Theregions in the Russian Far East, like Primorsky Krai, Kamchatka, Chukotka areincreasingly dependent on trade with China. Meanwhile, Turkish influence isgrowing in Tatarstan and Bashkortostan, and Kazakhstan is developing theTrans-Caspian route to lessen its reliance on Russia for transit. As financialflows shift, the Moscow-centric empire is losing its traditional grip onregional governance.

RegionalNationalism: From Cultural Identity to Political Autonomy

Acrossthe country, national regions are asserting their independence more boldly.Sakha, Buryatia, and Tuva are gradually breaking free from Moscow’s grip. InSiberia, Chinese economic influence is on the rise; in the Caucasus, ties with Muslimstates are strengthening; and in the Russian Far East, calls for greaterautonomy are growing louder by the day.

Thekey question now is: How long can the delicate balance between declared loyaltyand de facto autonomy be maintained? While Tatarstan still manages toproject an image of unity with Moscow, in the occupied Chechen Republic ofIchkeria that balance has long since crumbled. The Kadyrov regime, composed ofcollaborators loyal to Moscow, has long been playing by its own rules, withKadyrov himself free to ignore federal “laws” and directives. This trend islikely to spread to other regions over time.

Turkishand Chinese Vectors: Alternative Power Centers

Turkeyis proceeding methodically – through economic cooperation, humanitarianprojects, and cultural ties. In Tyumen Oblast, trade with Ankara has tripled,and Turkish business interests in Tatarstan and Bashkortostan are growing yearby year. At the same time, China is stepping up its economic expansion inSiberia and the Far East, becoming a key trading partner and investor. Thereare concerns, however, that this could simply replace Moscow’s colonial modelwith one directed from Beijing. To avoid trading one form of colonialism for another,the future independent states of the post-Russian space would do well to fosterdeeper cooperation with Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Australia, Mongolia, theUnited States, Canada, the EU, and other partners right away. Meanwhile,Kazakhstan is forging new trade routes that bypass Russia altogether.

Moscow’sempire largely remains a bystander to these developments, lacking a coherentresponse to its neighbors’ economic expansion. Instead of strategic planning,the Kremlin has resorted to tightening its grip on the regions – an approachthat only accelerates their alienation.

Isthe Outcome Already Decided?

TheKremlin does not truly govern its captive nations and colonial regions; itmerely holds them by force. For now, the security apparatus preserves theillusion of stability, but this is only temporary. Ruling over subjugatednations and territories through fear and repression does not create long-termresilience. The question isn’t if Russia will fall apart, but when and how.

Theworld has witnessed such scenarios before, from the collapse of the SovietUnion to the decay of postcolonial empires. As the last colonial empire inEurope, Russia is following the same trajectory. It is only a matter of timebefore the nations and regions still under Moscow’s occupation openly claimtheir right to self-determination and full independence.

Theillusion of stability is collapsing. The stark reality is that Russia isbecoming a patchwork of competing spheres of influence, and Moscow’s role asthe decisive center is steadily diminishing. History shows that when a centralpower no longer offers genuine development, the regions will seek it on theirown.