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History suggests a recurring pattern: empires fracture, and nations reclaim their sovereignty. By that measure, the so-called Russian Federation may not be immune to the same historical gravity. At the center of any future statehood emerging from its periphery lies a fundamental question — economic viability.
We present the findings of a group of experts in a new report, “The Index of Economic Capacity of Future Post-Russia States.” It is the first comprehensive study of its kind, offering a transparent and methodologically rigorous economic ranking of macro-regions that could plausibly emerge as independent states should the Russian Federation’s imperial framework unravel.
▪ Economic self-sufficiency;
▪ Social resilience and the weight of the “colonial burden”;
▪ Development trends from 2015 to 2024;
▪ Projections for 2025–2027.
A central conclusion emerges with clarity: many of these regions already possess the resource base, industrial capacity and social capital necessary for sustainable development beyond a centralized imperial model. The economic viability of prospective post-Russia states, the report argues, is not a speculative narrative but a measurable reality grounded in data.
The research was prepared with the participation of the NGO “Decolonization,” the Kyiv Foresight Foundation, the Forum of Free Nations of Post-Russia, and the Public Initiative of Action. Additional gratitude is extended to experts working within the Russian Federation whose names cannot be disclosed for security reasons. The study was produced with the support of the International Renaissance Foundation.
An expanded edition, offering deeper analytical assessments of each macro-region, is currently in preparation and will be released in the near future.
